What are the reasons that pushed Benjamin Netanyahu to leave his electoral campaign and head to Moscow for the second time this month? Fear of Hezbollah’s missile sites in Lebanon? Is it in Preparation for bigger attacks on the Iranian presence in Syria? And what about the Golan Heights?
The Israeli prime minister headed to Moscow for what seems to be an urgent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, for what marks the fifth meeting in five weeks. What is the reason for this meeting, just a few days before Israel’s parliamentary elections?
There are five possible reasons driving this surprising visit:
First: Netanyahu’s attempt to show the Israeli voters that he is an international man who has great ties with the leaders of two great powers, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could gain him votes, and secure the loyalty of around one million Israelis of Russian, Ukrainian, and Baltic origins, which could also turn his slow race with the generals’ alliance, which is led by his strong competitor Benny Gantz (of the Blue and White Party), to his advantage.
Second: Netanyahu knows that next May, which marks the beginning of the second and most important stage of US sanctions against Iran, might be a month of war, as Trump wants to prohibit Iranian oil exports completely, which the Iranians will not accept, and which might push them to close the strait of Hormuz, as they have threatened to do more than once on the behalf of Supreme Leader and President Hassan Rouhani, which would stop 18 million barrels from reaching the rest of the world.
Third: Netanyahu is extremely anxious about Hezbollah’s growing missile power and its Iranian military support. This concern was highlighted in a threat letter that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave to Lebanese officials, which stated that Iran had built a missile site in Lebanon for Hezbollah, which poses great danger to Israel. So, is Netanyahu planning to strike Lebanon and trying to “persuade” Russia?
Great Kremlin Palace Moscow - Russia
Fourth: The Iranian military presence in Syria still generates existential dread for Israel, as despite more than 200 attacks it has failed to reduce this danger, let alone destroy it completely. It is also clear that Netanyahu is looking for a green light from Russia and Putin for bigger and more effective strikes. It is also expected that he may ask for Syria to be prohibited from using its “S-300” missiles to halt any future strikes.
Fifth: Russia opposed the US decision over Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights; perhaps Netanyahu is trying to change this through his visit, or at least soften Russia’s stance against it. Furthermore, Netanyahu wants to accomplish two main goals: to stay in the parliament and to avoid going to prison on corruption charges, and he might find that a military escalation, or alluding to the possibility of one, and having Putin on his side to be the shortest route towards theses two goals.
However, there is a question regarding Russia and Putin’s attitude towards Netanyahu’s requests. Will Putin accept all of them, some of them, or will he reject them all?
We do not have an answer to that, however, what is obvious is that it is Netanyahu, who requested the meeting with Putin, and the latter’s granting of the meeting might seem like positive steps, however, there are some who say that this approval does not necessarily mean that Putin will accept the requests, instead, he might just listen at first, and then warn of any “reckless” attacks on Syria and Lebanon.
Furthermore, a Lebanese source close to Syria and Iran confirmed to us that the Russian officials were devastated by the Israeli attack on Aleppo two weeks ago, and that it was Russia that prevented any Syrian or Iranian revengeful response. The Russian officials also alluded to lifting the ban on the use of the “S-300” missiles that could halt any future Israeli attacks.
We do not have any indication as to what Netanyahu’s trip to Moscow may entail, however, what we can say is that the Syrians, Iranians, and maybe even the Russians are fed up, because these Israeli advances have become embarrassing to everyone.
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