UK Prime Minister Theresa May is going nowhere for the time being. In yet another showdown with some of her party members, May defeated the odds and pushed back against another attempt to be ousted from Downing Street.
Despite her promise to quit if her Brexit deal is passed by the Parliament, The 1922 Committee tried to push for a rule change to force May’s exit. However, the executive members of the Committee, the so-called “men in grey suits,” rejected the proposed rule change.
While May survives to fight another day, Tory members and advisors think the party is more fragile than ever and might suffer big losses in case the UK takes part in the European Parliamentary elections in May.
May and other Tory leaders should look beyond only surviving in such political challenges. Tory MP Kenneth Clarke, once talking about May, said: “She is a bloody difficult woman and certainly a very resilient politician who wants to finish the job and pass her Brexit deal.”
Nevertheless, the problem with the party is that they cannot agree on the Brexit deal agreed between May and the 27 other members of the European Union.
For her, finishing the job should be passing the deal in Parliament before 22nd of May. As for this possibility, realistically, many feel it is unlikely that a deal would pass in Parliament at this point before 22nd of May.
Since the latest decision to delay Brexit once again for a few months, enthusiasm to find a solution for Brexit has significantly lost pace. The problem with Westminster is that the pressure is off from the parliament every time there is a delay as the one we have today until the end of October 2019.
When you look at the relationship between May and the party, you see it is fraught, but there is still no consensus among Tory MPs that she should step down before the Withdrawal Agreement passes.
While Conservative MPs broadly want her to go, the majority of them do not want her to go just yet. This may change after either the local general elections or the European elections, but only because it might change the view of how the Government should deliver Brexit.
Some in the party are aiming to seize the first opportunity to replace May, but in doing so, they are clashing among one other.
The leadership contenders are not really competing against May, but against each other. The PM has already said she is stepping down, so the race is between those who want to replace her.
There are a number of contenders who stand a good chance of becoming the next leader and that is why I don’t think there will be a coronation; there will be a number of people who won’t stand by and allow the crown to be passed to the former Foreign Secretary and Mayor of London without a fight.
The question of who benefits in the Conservative Party from a good Brexit Party performance at the European Elections is really about whether it increases support in the Conservative Party for a No Deal Brexit.
If it does, and a solid majority develops in favor of no deal among Conservative MPs, then someone who backs a No Deal like Boris will benefit. However, if people say this is a repeat of 2014, and Nigel Farage’s Brexit party topping the polls does not change the underlying attitudes towards No Deal among Conservative MPs, then it may not boost candidates like Boris.
Conservative leadership campaigners need to weigh up how they get majority support not just among Conservative MPs and members, but also in the country, if they want to be Prime Minister for more than a couple of years.
When we look at the parliament right now, we see a very difficult situation that makes many MPs worry about a new general election. I cannot see many Conservative MPs voting to face the electorate any time soon.
Absent total breakdown and a No Confidence vote in Parliament, there might be an early election if a new leader comes in and reshapes the relationship with the DUP, gets a polling boost, and is convinced they have the right strategy to win a majority of 40-60 MPs – but that is quite a steep hill to climb.
Regardless, the next Conservative leader is either going to have to shore up the party’s base of older, leave-supporting voters and win back voters they lost in suburbs and bigger towns in 2017, or convert long-standing Labour voters in towns that have historically rarely voted Conservative.
Whoever wins the leadership is going to have a clear view on this question, and a strategy to succeed. It will require a sober look at the party’s strengths and weaknesses, and a serious assessment of how one deals with the weaknesses in particular.
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