General Haftar comes across as an experienced army general who aspires to take power in oil-rich Libya, especially following his forces’ latest advances to take over Tripoli, which was a good attempt by Haftar who has two types of power: a big army, and weapons that control multiple oil fields and support many countries.
Given the upcoming United Nations meeting, Haftar thought he could capture Tripoli and have a strong role in any future negotiations. But what went wrong is what is known as “erreur de facteurs.”
Haftar didn’t realize the powers that were facing him. He attacked too early without engaging and talking to the militias in Misrata, which makes the capture of Tripoli unlikely.
Either Haftar’s attack was too early and was launched without proper premeditation, or he misinterpreted his bargain with the militias.
Moreover, despite the recognition of an official government by the UN, the problem is that the government is incapacitated despite the oil money it generates.
As for France, it is right to have a discussion with Haftar and to help him, since he has enough power, which plays a significant role in Libya especially that he has the support of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, while Sarraj has much less power, to the point that he is incapable of taking control over Tripoli against the militias.
France feels duty-bound to do something about the situation in Libya because of its responsibility after intervening to oust Ghaddafi.
Haftar also has a powerful army to fight jihadists and reach an agreement with Tripoli. However, it doesn’t seem like this will happen anytime soon.
The Central Bank in Tripoli is only giving 18 percent to Benghazi, which is not enough, and which is probably why Haftar has become impatient.
In addition, the UN does not want a general to take power; between Haftar and a politician, they prefer a politician. It’s often the case with the UN, but countries’ militaries prefer military strongmen.
France endorses the UN’s position and has to deal with both sides officially to find a solution.
At some point, one side has to give in for things to move on in Libya. As for what is to be expected, either Haftar wins and everybody complies, or he loses, and all will go back to point zero, in which case, he has to compromise and negotiate with the powers in Tripoli.
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